The Hamilton Tiger-Cats look to continue their recent winning ways when they take on the Toronto Argonauts on Saturday night at BMO Field. The Argos enter the game as [metabet_core_dynamic_odds market=”spread-home” query=”531067″ site_id=”3downnation”] point favourites.
The Argos have dominated the Ticats in recent years, winning six of the last seven games between the provincial rivals, including five in a row. The Argos have also won those games in convincing fashion, scoring 30 more points in five of the six wins. This rivalry has become as one-sided as they come.
But if the Tiger-Cats are going to snap the five-game skid against the Boatmen, Saturday’s tilt might be the one. The Argos will be without their top two rushers, as Canadian Andrew Harris has been moved to the six-game injured list and starter A.J. Ouellette will be given the night off. The Argos can be judicious with Ouellette’s workload over the final six games as they clinched first place in the East Division with their victory last week over the Montreal Alouettes.
Without both Ouellette and Harris, the Argos will rely on rookie speedster Deonta McMahon with Canadian Daniel Adeboboye slotting in as the backup. Saturday’s matchup will be McMahon’s second career game but he rushed twice for 30 yards against the Alouettes last week, showcasing his game-breaking speed. The Tabbies have been vulnerable against the run this year, surrendering over 123 yards per game on the ground and 5.5 yards per rush.
[metabet_core_odds_board query=”531067″ site_id=”3downnation”]
Since being embarrassed by the Argos on Labour Day, the Tiger-Cats have rattled off two straight wins behind improved play from the team’s offence. Rookie quarterback Taylor Powell started to find his stride in those games as well, completing 70.6 percent of his passes for 562 yards and four touchdowns with just one interception in the wins.
Running back James Butler and receiver Tim White have started to find their groove as well. Butler has rushed for over 80 yards in three of the last five games and has found the end zone three times over that span. White has probably been the biggest beneficiary of the change at offensive coordinator, as he has more yards during the last five games (503) than he did in the previous eight (403) and is 94 yards away from his second straight 1,000-yard season.
The key for the Ticats will be keeping the Argos off the field, as the Double Blue have the most prolific offence in the league over the first three and a half months. The Argonauts lead the league in points per game, are second in net offence, third in passing yards per game and fourth in rushing yards per game. A heavy dose of Butler should help keep Kelly and company off the field.
While I would love to suggest picking the upset here, especially considering the home side is literally just playing out the string until they get to the playoffs, the recent matchups have been too lopsided in Toronto’s favour to make betting on the Tiger-Cats a viable option. I know Hamilton has surprised a couple of times this year in outright wins over the B.C. Lions and Winnipeg Blue Bombers, but the Argos are in a different class this year. It would be irresponsible to suggest the Ticats can win at BMO Field, something they have not done in their last three trips. The line may be high but Toronto has won by 13 or more in all six wins the last two years so lay the points with the Argos and take them to win outright as well.
Toronto scores just over 34 points per game and the Tiger-Cats under Scott Milanovich have averaged nearly 25 points per game, and 28.5 since scoring 10 in Milanovich’s debut. Even with the Argos missing key offensive contributors in Ouellette, Harris, Kurleigh Gittens Jr. and Cam Phillips, expect a lot of points at BMO on Saturday. Take the over.
Picks
Spread: Argonauts -9.5 (-110)
Moneyline: Argonauts (-440)
Total points: Over 49.5 (-110)
Josh Smith has been writing about the Ticats and the CFL since 2010 and was sporting his beard way before it was cool. Will be long after, too.
