3DownNation predictions: best bets for the 112th Grey Cup between Roughriders and Alouettes

The journey that started with rookie camps in May will end this weekend in Winnipeg with the 112th Grey Cup between the Saskatchewan Roughriders and the Montreal Alouettes.

It’s been a fun year and these look like two evenly-matched teams heading into the championship game on Sunday in Winnipeg.

With just one game to pick apart, let’s look at every angle of this one to find as many advantages as we can.

When Saskatchewan has the ball:

Saskatchewan dealt with a series of injuries at receiver this year, but still found a way to have the CFL’s second-best net offence, trailing only the B.C. Lions. They had a balanced attack with the fourth-most rushing yards and passing yards in the CFL and that was on display in Saturday’s West Final when Trevor Harris put up 305 yards through the air while A.J. Ouellette added another 113 yards on the ground.

The team is facing a Montreal defence that has dealt with its own injury issues, which continue in the Grey Cup. Ciante Evans missed the first two days of practice this week while Mustafa Johnson was limited in Thursday’s practice. Regardless of who is in the lineup, this remains one of the toughest defences in the CFL, finishing first in opponent net offence while allowing the fewest passing yards in the league.

It is going to be fun to watch the chess match between Noel Thorpe’s defence and Trevor Harris. The former Alouette averaged 270 yards passing in their two matchups — one a blowout win for Saskatchewan, the other a convincing Montreal victory. One X-factor could be Samuel Emilus, who was unavailable for both matchups between these two teams this year. Emilus is healthy now and had a 100-yard game in the West Final.

The Riders will be hoping to mimic the success Bo Levi Mitchell had in finding his number one receiver, Kenny Lawler. Obviously, it was in a losing effort, but Lawler did have 117 yards in the East Final last weekend in The Hammer.

The biggest factor in who wins this matchup could come down to the trenches. Saskatchewan allowed the third-fewest sacks in the CFL this year, and they didn’t exactly have the benefit of a mobile QB to bail them out. Meanwhile, Montreal was tied for the league lead in sacks during the regular season. Harris and the Roughriders’ passing attack thrive when everything is running smoothly and on time. Montreal will look to throw that off on Sunday.

The run game could be where Saskatchewan has the advantage. The version of Ouellette the Riders thought they were signing when they brought him in before last season has shown up. He finished second in the league in rushing and averaged over 80 yards per game against Montreal this season. Montreal has a very good defence, but they have been vulnerable against the run. Greg Bell only had 66 yards for Hamilton in the East Final last week, but he reached that number on 10 carries. If Ouellette is averaging six yards a carry, his attempts are going to be much closer to 20 than they are to 10.

PICKS: A.J. Ouellette OVER 79.5 rush yards, Trevor Harris UNDER 281.5 passing yards

When Montreal has the ball:

Speaking of injury issues, Montreal had plenty of them on the offensive side of the ball, with the most noteworthy being at QB. Davis Alexander was excellent when healthy this season, but he did miss time and comes into this game as a major question mark. He and the team say he is ready to go, but there has to be concern on the Alouettes sideline about how it will hold up in the cold of Winnipeg this Sunday.

If he is 100 percent or close to it, he is just about as good as it gets, already coming into this game with a perfect record as a starter. He is a big play waiting to happen, whether it be with his arm or legs. This year, 50 percent of his passes travelled at least 20 yards, which was the third-most in the CFL. You combine that with the talented receiving group that Montreal has, led by Tyson Philpot, and this is an offence that can overwhelm quickly.

The Riders are well aware of what Philpot is capable of. The talented Canadian had nine receptions for 238 yards and two touchdowns in Montreal’s blowout win over Saskatchewan. The Riders were without their two starting cornerbacks in that game, so I don’t know if we will get an encore performance, but he is still a dangerous weapon that the Riders will have to keep track of on Sunday.

Saskatchewan’s defence was a strength of the team this year, but they did give up quite a few yards through the air. The Riders gave up the second-most passing yards in the league this season, although they still were effective as they allowed the fewest points in the CFL while having the second-best opponents’ net offence. It was a bend-but-don’t-break style for Corey Mace’s crew, which we saw an example of in the West Final when Nathan Rourke and the Lions worked their way into the Red Zone before throwing a tip-drill interception.

With the third-most sacks in the CFL and the second-most interceptions made, the Riders bank on their opponents making a mistake somewhere during a long drive, and that is when they capitalize. They allowed the second-fewest big plays in the league this year, so that will be a fun chess match to watch on Sunday.

In the run game, it is advantage Saskatchewan again. The Riders gave up the fewest rushing yards in the league by an average of 15 yards per game. They are facing a Montreal squad that doesn’t seem to be interested in running the ball; they had the fewest rushing yards of any team that made the playoffs this year. Montreal may try to take some pressure off Alexander with the run game, but Saskatchewan may force them to change that game plan quickly.

PICKS: Stevie Scott UNDER 40.5 rush yards

Game Prediction:

This is a very, very close game on paper and likely will be on the field as well. Both these defences can ruin an offence’s game plan, while both quarterbacks are absolute difference-makers in their own way.

I believe the Riders’ passing offence will be able to have some of the success that the Ticats had through the air last week, but I imagine A.J. Ouellette has a big game.

If Davis Alexander’s hamstring is an issue at all, then I think this Riders pass rush can be a problem for Montreal. It is going to be a very close game and I think these three keys are enough to give the Riders the trophy, but for our purposes, it will be close enough for Montreal to cover in a low-scoring game.

PICKS: Montreal +4, UNDER 49