B.C. Lions
3DownNation CFL East & West Final predictions: best bets for Alouettes at Ticats, Lions at Riders
There are just three games left in the CFL season, as we get set for the Division Finals this weekend. Four teams remain in the quest for another Grey Cup, and unlike other years, you can make a very compelling case for all four.
Not much separates these teams, but that doesn’t mean we won’t try to find an edge. So, let’s get started.
Montreal Alouettes at Hamilton Tiger-Cats — Saturday, November 8 at 3:00 p.m. EST
The Alouettes head into the East Final with some momentum coming off a 42-33 win over Winnipeg last week in Montreal. Now they arrive in Hamilton to take on the Tiger-Cats, who won the East by just two points.
Montreal lost in their regular-season finale to Winnipeg, but that game didn’t mean anything to them standings-wise. If you exclude that game, the Alouettes haven’t lost a meaningful game since September 6, when they fell 26-9 to the Tiger-Cats at Percival Molson.
Now, before we say “advantage Hamilton,” it should be noted that James Morgan was the starting quarterback for Montreal that day, and they were in the midst of an injury crisis at the sport’s most important position.
That doesn’t mean we just throw the game out entirely, though, as Greg Bell ran 20 times for 156 yards and a score, helping Hamilton to the win. Montreal finished the season in the bottom half of the league in rush yards allowed, but that game was the last time they allowed a 100-yard rusher.
This is such a fascinating matchup because you can do that for most of the stats that we look at. For each point in favour of one side, you can come up with a perfectly reasonable counterpoint for the other side.
Hamilton won both games they played against Montreal this year, but Davis Alexander didn’t play in either of them. The last time Alexander faced Hamilton was in 2024, when the Ticats were still two weeks away from bringing in Chris Jones to fix their defence. As we’ve seen this week, a lot can change very quickly in the Canadian Football League.
The one consistent matchup between these two this year has been Bo Levi Mitchell against this Montreal defence, and that will be a big one again this weekend. The East finalist for the George Reed Most Outstanding Player award played in both games against the Alouettes this year, averaging 219 yards passing. Montreal is one of two teams that didn’t allow a 300-yard passing game to Mitchell this season.
The veteran QB led the league in passing yards, while Montreal’s defence allowed the fewest passing yards this season. This is the unstoppable force meeting the immovable object that will likely decide who will be representing the East next week in the Grey Cup.
Another potential X-Factor is Alexander, who was excellent last week against Winnipeg in the East Semi-Final. He threw for 384 yards and a TD in their wild 42-33 win. The young QB showed the levels his talent can get to as Winnipeg made a strong comeback attempt in the second half of that game. Meanwhile, Hamilton was in the bottom half of the league in passing yards allowed this year.
In the run game, Stevie Scott III also went off for 133 yards and two TDs on 18 carries against Winnipeg last week. The RB out of Indiana had a couple of big moments during the year, but this was certainly his biggest game in the CFL. Hamilton’s defence was vulnerable on the ground this year, giving up 111 yards per game. Asking Scott to have back-to-back career games in the playoffs is a big request, but if he can keep Montreal from being one-dimensional, that would be huge for them.
Aside from those aspects, not much separates these two teams statistically. They both have positive turnover ratios, they both have QBs who can come up with big plays, and they are the top two defences in the league at limiting big plays. Hamilton has home-field advantage, but no team in the CFL won more road games this year than Montreal.
All signs point towards an excellent game, one that will no doubt produce a worthy challenger for the Grey Cup. In the end, I trust Montreal’s defence to get a couple more stops against Mitchell and the Ticats’ offence.
PICK: Montreal -3, Stevie Scott III OVER 38.5 Rush yards, Greg Bell OVER 61.5 rush yards
Courtesy: Electric Umbrella/Liam Richards/Saskatchewan Roughriders
B.C. Lions at Saskatchewan Roughriders — Saturday, November 8 at 6:30 p.m. EST
The B.C. Lions are playing their best football at the right time as they head into Regina for the West Final against the Roughriders.
The Lions won six in a row to close out the regular season, earning homefield advantage for the West Semi-Final, where they won a classic against Calgary.
Meanwhile, Saskatchewan looks to avoid the trap that many other top teams have fallen into before. The Riders haven’t played a meaningful game since they beat Toronto in Week 19 to wrap up the West. They finished with the best record in the league, but the number one overall seed in the CFL hasn’t won the Grey Cup since Winnipeg in 2021. They haven’t even made the Grey Cup in the last two seasons.
Whether Corey Mace and company were able to stay sharp over the last month remains to be seen, but they certainly accomplished their goal of getting to this game with a healthy roster. Apart from Shane Ray, Ajou Ajou, and KeeSean Johnson, Saskatchewan will have all their top players at their disposal. The Riders, like most teams, have had injury problems all year, but they look like they are healthy for the biggest games of the year.
The Riders come into this game as one of the most complete teams in the CFL. They are second in both net offence and opponent net offence allowed. They were fourth in the league in passing yards and fourth in rushing yards. For the second year in a row, they were the best run defence in the league. But, this is where things get worrisome for Rider Nation: Saskatchewan gave up the second-most passing yards in the league, with only Edmonton allowing more.
There is some noise in that, as the Riders were up in a lot of their games, and that tends to lead to a more pass-happy attack by your opposition. Nonetheless, that is not a category you want to struggle in when facing Nathan Rourke. The Canadian QB was excellent all season long, finishing a close second to Bo Levi Mitchell in the passing race.
The Lions’ QB finished the season with three straight games of 330+ pass yards, throwing eight TDs in those games compared to four INTs. He had two big games against the Riders this year, averaging 352.5 yards with six TDs and two INTs. The good news for the Green and White is that Saskatchewan won the first of the two matchups, and they were resting their stars for most of the second.
Meanwhile, the Lions’ pass defence has been very strong this season. B.C. gave up the third-fewest passing yards in the league, but they did struggle against former Lion Vernon Adams Jr. last week, giving up 334 yards and a pair of TDs. They only faced Trevor Harris for 1.5 games this year, and they seemed to have some issues with the Saskatchewan pivot. Harris threw for 395 yards and three TDs in their Week 7 win over B.C., and closed the season going 10-of-11 against the Lions with 112 yards before being pulled in an effort to keep him healthy.
Harris was his usual solid self all season long. He threw for over 340 yards in each of the last three games that he played from start to finish. While he is someone who relies a lot on timing and rhythm, I also believe the 39-year-old QB will benefit greatly from having the last couple of weeks off.
As mentioned above, the Lions’ pass defence has been a strength throughout the season, but they’ve slipped on some banana peels lately. Excluding the Week 21 game against Saskatchewan, B.C. has allowed 280+ pass yards in four of its last six games. Lions fans would counter with the fact that, in that time, they’ve also forced nine interceptions. If Harris needs to get back into game form after the bye week, then the Lions could pounce. On the other side, if Harris is his normal self, then it could be a long day for the Lions’ defence.
One area where Saskatchewan could attack B.C. is on the ground, where the Lions allowed the third most yards this year. A.J. Ouellette added to those struggles in the two full games he played against them, averaging 105.5 yards per game with one rushing and one receiving TD. Ouellette was a bright spot for Saskatchewan all season long, finishing second in the league in rushing. He will be crucial to keeping the Riders’ attack balanced against a Lions defence that can take advantage of any weak spots you may have.
The nerdy part of me is interested in what happens on first down in this game. The Lions averaged 8.5 yards per play on first down this year. If they can keep it in second and short all game, that forces Saskatchewan’s pass rush to ease up a bit. Rourke is excellent on obvious passing downs as well, but it gives the Riders a much better shot if they can make things somewhat predictable against one of the most electric players in the CFL.
On the opposite end, Saskatchewan had the worst average gain on first down of all the playoff teams. They got a bit more creative on first down as the year went on, but they are going to have to avoid too many second-and-seven situations against Mathieu Betts and the Lions’ pass rush, which sacked the most QBs in the league this year.
Much like the East Final, the West champion should be crowned in a game that goes down to the wire. That’s a spot Saskatchewan is familiar with, as nine of their 12 wins were decided in the last three minutes this season. In the end, I expect the Riders’ pass rush to be just too much for the Lions to overcome.