B.C. Lions
3DownNation CFL East & West Semi-Final predictions: best bets for Bombers at Alouettes, Stampeders at Lions
The Canadian Football League is now on to the postseason with the Division Semi-Finals set for Saturday. That means we only have five games left, so we can really dive deep into these matchups.
It is the best time of year to be a CFL fan, so let’s see if we can find a betting edge.
Winnipeg Blue Bombers at Montreal Alouettes — Saturday, November 1 at 2:00 p.m. EDT
The Winnipeg Blue Bombers cross over into the East Division bracket, where they are greeted by the Montreal Alouettes.
Injuries have caused problems all season long for both of these clubs, so looking at the season-long numbers is a tough task. The difference is that a lot of Montreal’s key players got healthier and more consistent as the year went on. You can’t say the same for Winnipeg.
The Bombers did win four of their last five to get into this spot, but only one of those wins would give you any confidence.
Winnipeg’s consistency issues are highlighted by the play of QB Zach Collaros. The two-time M.O.P. threw for 367 yards and a TD in Winnipeg’s 40-3 win over Hamilton. Even with that performance, he is only averaging 229 yards passing per game in his last four outings, while throwing four TDs and five INTs in that span.
Collaros is going up against an Alouettes team that allowed the fewest passing yards in the league this year. They haven’t allowed a QB to throw for more than 290 yards since Week 12 against Nathan Rourke. This is not an easy defence to try to get right against.
The key matchup for Montreal on defence is in the run game. The Alouettes allowed the fourth-most rushing yards in the league, while Brady Oliveira was fourth in rushing despite missing some time to injury. In the only matchup these two teams played that mattered to both, Oliveira went off for 137 yards and a TD. Winnipeg needs its star back to get to those levels again if they want to advance to the East Final next week.
When Montreal has the ball, Davis Alexander has been fantastic. The Portland State product has thrown for over 300 yards in two of his three games since returning from injury and remains perfect as a starter.
He goes up against a Winnipeg pass defence that allowed the second-fewest passing yards in the league this year. Winnipeg has held opposing QBs to under 250 yards in nine of their last 10 games.
Admittedly, these two are closer than I thought in a few of these numbers. I was leaning towards Montreal before I started, but some of the data had me reconsidering. However, upon further digging, I found a couple of areas of concern that I just can’t ignore.
One of the reasons teams don’t get a lot of yards against Montreal is that their QBs don’t have time to throw against the Als’ defence. Montreal led the league in sacks this year, while Winnipeg allowed the most sacks of any playoff team. That is very bad news for the Bombers, who have had serious issues keeping Zach Collaros in games this year.
The other potentially critical issue for Winnipeg is in the turnover department. Montreal had the third-best turnover differential in the league, while Winnipeg’s was second-worst in the CFL. Only Ottawa had a worse ratio than the Bombers did this year. We know that when the calendar flips to November, you need to protect your QB and protect the football. Winnipeg has struggled to do both.
The last number that jumped out was Winnipeg’s road record. The Bombers won just three road games this year, and they faced a backup QB in two of those three, including their Week 12 win in Montreal against James Morgan and the Alouettes.
Winnipeg’s defence should be enough to keep the score on the low side. But their protection and turnover issues will keep them from getting to within a TD of the Alouettes.
PICKS: Montreal -6, UNDER 49.5, Zach Collaros UNDER 255.5 yards
Photo courtesy: Jimmy Jeong/CFL.
Calgary Stampeders at B.C. Lions — Saturday, November 1 at 5:30 p.m. EDT
The Calgary Stampeders and B.C. Lions clash with a trip to Regina on the line in the West Semi-Final.
The Lions found their stride late in the year, winning six in a row with an average margin of victory of 13 points. Two of those wins came against their opposition this weekend, the Calgary Stampeders. Clearly, the second loss woke Calgary up as they haven’t lost since their Week 18 defeat in Vancouver.
If you like good QB play, this game should be a treat to watch. Nathan Rourke missed two games during the season because of an injury, but he apparently used the time off to find his Superman cape, as the Canadian pivot was brilliant upon return. From Week 5 on, he only had one game with under 250 yards passing, finishing the year with 12 games of 300 yards or more. Rourke led the league in completions of 30 yards or more, and he had the best completion percentage on passes that travelled more than 20 yards.
That is going to be tested against a Calgary team that allowed the third-fewest big plays in the league this season. The Stampeders’ defence was dominant to start the year, but a mid-season injury to Folarin Orimolade changed all of that.
If you want to know when Orimolade left the Stamps defence, you can see a clear before and after on the schedule. The last game the dominant edge rusher played was Week 13 against Edmonton. Up to that point, Calgary was 8-3 and allowing 19 points per game. After his injury, Calgary went 3-4 and allowed 28.8 points per game. They went from allowing a points total that would have been best in the league to one that would have been the worst of the playoff teams.
Now, the Stamps’ defence did step up in these last three weeks, allowing just 14.3 points per game. But two of the three opponents they faced were out of playoff contention. It remains to be seen what this defence can do against real competition, and it may not matter if Rourke is on his game.
On the opposite sideline stands Vernon Adams Jr., whose numbers haven’t matched the real impact he’s had on Calgary all year. The former Lion only had six games in which he threw for more than 275 yards this season. One of those games came against B.C., but he also threw for just 125 yards in his other appearance against his old mates.
Much like the East Semi-Final, the run game could play a big role in this matchup. Dedrick Mills finished as the league’s leading rusher this year while being tied for first in TDs. He’s facing a Lions run D that gave up the third-most rush yards this season. In Mills’ two games against the Lions, he had a combined 157 yards on 22 carries, while adding 69 receiving yards on 10 receptions. B.C. is going to have to take that away and force VA into some longer second downs if they want to advance to the West Final.
These two have been on opposite paths all season. Calgary dominated early in the year while the Lions struggled to find consistency. Then, as the year went on, Calgary lost its way while the Lions found their roar. I expect that to continue in the West Semi-Final.