The Canadian Football League is heading into Week 12, which means we are officially into the second half of the season.
I went 2-0 last week, plus our first futures play of the year cashed. In my Best Bets for Week 1, I gave out the Toronto Argonauts under 11 wins. Well, last week was their eighth loss of the season and, unless the league has added a 19th regular-season game without me knowing, that gives us a win.
With that win in the record books, I am 20-16 on the season, so let’s try to keep the good times going this week.
Edmonton Elks at Ottawa Redblacks — Friday, August 22 at 7:30 p.m. EDT
Two teams in need of a win face-off in Ottawa on Friday night, with the Redblacks hosting Edmonton. Both teams have just three wins on the year, which means playoff hopes are fading fast.
On the Edmonton side, they have been playing better football lately, recording back-to-back wins. The two games before that, they played close games with division leaders Hamilton and Saskatchewan.
A big reason for that turnaround has been the play of Cody Fajardo. The veteran quarterback was given the starting role over Tre Ford four weeks ago and is almost 300 yards ahead of Ford despite only attempting 17 more passes this year. Fajardo also has fewer interceptions than Ford and more touchdown passes than Ford. This isn’t a hit piece on Ford — it’s just meant to illustrate that this isn’t the same Elks offence that struggled in the first quarter of the season.
Edmonton will face an Ottawa defence that is middle of the pack on the season for net defence, though they’ve given up 30-plus points in three of their last four games. The one game under that number was against Stampeders backup QB P.J. Walker in a game where Calgary was dealing with a number of other injury issues.
On the opposite side of the ball, Dru Brown is unlikely to play after missing the first two practices of the week, so all signs point to Dustin Crum getting the start again. In Crum’s three appearances before last week’s relief duty, he had thrown for 495 yards total. His season high for a game is 235 yards, a mark that has been surpassed by 14 different quarterbacks this season. In those three games, the Redblacks have averaged 17 points.
Edmonton’s defence isn’t great — it’s certainly been better lately but still isn’t an overly threatening unit. However, I don’t see Ottawa being able to score enough to keep up with Edmonton in this game, nor do I think they’ll be able to get this game over the total, which is the second-highest of the week in the CFL.
PICK: Edmonton -3, Under 54
B.C. Lions at Toronto Argonauts — Saturday, August 23 at 3:00 p.m. EDT
The B.C. Lions venture out to the Big Smoke for a matchup with the Toronto Argonauts on Saturday afternoon.
The Lions are starting to come on strong after an inconsistent start to the season. They have won back-to-back games, scoring 77 points in the process. Nathan Rourke has been unleashed, averaging 395 yards and three touchdowns per game in this mini-run. It’s obviously a small sample size, but if you kept that pace for a full season, it would break the CFL’s single-season records. He’s been on a tear.
Rourke will be going up against a Toronto defensive unit that has struggled mightily this season. They have given up the most points per game in the CFL this year, and they are the only team giving up over 30 points per game. Four teams have had their highest-scoring games of the season against the Argos, while Edmonton’s 28 points last week is the second most points they’ve scored in a game all year.
It seems cruel to bring up home-field advantage in this matchup, given both teams will be playing home games away from home next season, but it should be noted Toronto has just one win at BMO Field this season, while the Lions actually have a winning record of 3-2 away from the West Coast.
Toronto’s offence has put up some pretty big numbers at times this season, but I don’t believe it will be enough to keep pace with what Rourke and the Lions can do on Saturday afternoon.
PICK: B.C. -3.5
