It’s Week 8 in the Canadian Football League and we’ve got three East vs. West showdowns to enjoy this week.
We went 2-1 in Week 7, so let’s try to keep the momentum up and get another winning week under our belts.
Montreal Alouettes at Calgary Stampeders (-6.5) — Thursday, July 24 at 9:00 p.m. EDT
The Calgary Stampeders return home after back-to-back impressive road wins in Regina and Winnipeg. They face off with the Montreal Alouettes, who won last week, but are limping into this matchup.
Davis Alexander helped spark a late-game comeback for Montreal over the Argos in Week 7 but, in doing so, he injured his hamstring again, meaning we’ll get another helping of McLeod Bethel-Thompson. Earlier this season, I thought this Als roster was good enough that MBT just had to keep it between the lines and things would be alright. That has not been the case as they lost both games he started earlier this year.
The veteran QB will also be without star receiver Tyson Philpot for this game as the Canadian pass catcher deals with a hamstring problem of his own. The timing of all of this is tough on the Alouettes, who are going up against a Stampeders defence that has been dominant so far this season.
Calgary’s new-look defence is the only unit in the league that is allowing less than 20 points per game in the CFL this year. Calgary has also forced the most turnovers this season, so again, this isn’t the best defence to be facing short-handed.
Looking at the stats for Calgary is an interesting journey. As mentioned above, they just don’t give up points.
The Stampeders haven’t allowed more than 20 in a game since their Week 1 win over Hamilton. But, if you look at passing yards and rushing yards allowed, Calgary is in the bottom half of the league. This is partly because the team has faced the most offensive plays this season at 61.8 per game. With that said, they have the second-best yards per play in the league at 6.2, trailing only Montreal.
With this in mind, it’s no surprise they have given up the fewest 30-plus yard completions this year. This Stampeders defence forces you to be perfect all the way up the field, and they are willing to bet that. At some point, an opponent will make a mistake, and Calgary will be ready to pounce when the opportunity arises. That could be a problem for Bethel-Thompson, who has thrown two interceptions this year and will be working shorthanded.
The area that could be interesting for Montreal’s offence is the run game. Calgary has given up the most yards per carry in the league this year, but they are middle of the pack when it comes to the rush yards allowed per game. That is mainly because their offence has opened up such big leads, their opponents just give up on the run. The Als haven’t been a super run-heavy team this year, but Sean Thomas-Erlington has shown flashes this year with three performances over 60 yards. If Montreal can either stay close or stay committed to the run, that could take pressure off their struggling passing game.
If everyone were healthy, we’d be talking about this game as a potential Grey Cup preview. That’s far from the case, however, especially on the Alouettes side. I expect Montreal’s high-level defence can keep this game relatively low-scoring, but ultimately, they won’t be able to slow down Calgary’s offence enough to give them a road win in the Stampede City.
PICK: Calgary -6.5, UNDER 49.5
Photo: Maggie Stemp-Turner/3DownNation. All rights reserved.
Winnipeg Blue Bombers at Toronto Argonauts (+3.5) — Saturday, July 26, 7:00 pm EDT
The Winnipeg Blue Bombers look to bounce back from a rare home loss when they take on the Toronto Argonauts on Saturday night.
Winnipeg isn’t often in a spot to rebound from a home loss, but that’s the case right now. On the surface, you can understand why this line might be this close. Winnipeg is hitting the road after losing back-to-back games with a QB who is banged up, but those two losses came against the team that everyone believes is playing the best football in the league right now. Also, Zach Collaros was a full participant in practice on Tuesday and is expected to play against Toronto.
My take: I like Winnipeg a lot in this spot. Those two losses against Calgary didn’t look great, but the Stampeders are doing that to everyone right now. Toronto’s defence hasn’t shown us anything that would lead us to believe they could do the same thing that the Stampeders did. Toronto has allowed the second-most points per game in the CFL this year at 31.5, which is 13 more than Calgary has. This should be a much easier matchup for the Blue Bombers.
This should be a big Brady Oliveira week going up against this Toronto defence. The Boatmen have allowed the third-most rushing yards per game in the league this year. Oliviera hasn’t had that dominant game on the ground that we are used to seeing from him yet this season, but he is still capable of taking advantage of a struggling run defence. Toronto’s ground defence has improved in the last few weeks, but none of the backs they’ve faced were on Oliveira’s level, so this should be a plus matchup for him this week.
Ultimately, I think the Bombers are playing better football than the Argos, even with those back-to-back losses. I expect Winnipeg to try and erase the two Stamps games from everyone’s minds with a big win in Toronto.
PICK: Winnipeg -3.5
Photo courtesy: Steven Chang/B.C. Lions
Hamilton Tiger-Cats at B.C. Lions (-3.5) — Sunday, July 27 at 7:00 p.m. EDT
The East Division-leading Hamilton Tiger-Cats head west for a matchup with the B.C. Lions to close out Week 8 in the CFL.
Hamilton stumbled out of the starting blocks, but they have found their stride now. The Tiger-Cats have won four in a row with their offence putting on a show, averaging 35 points per game in that stretch. That has them as the top-scoring team in the league while Bo Levi Mitchell has found his form from last season as he leads the league in passing yards. The two-time M.O.P. has thrown for over 250 yards in five of his six games this season.
This will be an interesting test as he goes up against a Lions defence that has allowed the fewest passing yards per game in the league. However, there could be some noise in those numbers. They have faced the Elks’ two-headed “monster” at QB twice, Chris Streveler, McLeod Bethel-Thompson, and Jake Maier.
In Week 3, they did limit Zach Collaros to 178 yards, but they struggled against the Riders last week, allowing Trevor Harris to throw for 395 yards and three touchdowns. So, while the numbers make it look like a tough matchup, it might be a good spot for Bo Levi Mitchell to stay hot.
Hamilton’s offence may not be enough to win this game, but I do think they will be able to do enough to keep it close with the Lions this week.
PICK: Hamilton +3.5
