The Canadian Football League has reached Week 7, which means we’re one-third of the way through the season and it’s time to start believing what these teams are telling us.
We’re also back to a regular four-game week, so we have an extra opportunity to find an edge, so let’s get to it.
Calgary Stampeders at Winnipeg Blue Bombers (-3.5) — Friday, July 18 at 8:30 p.m. EDT
The Stampeders will look to stay hot as they take on the Blue Bombers in the Manitoba capital this week. The way both teams have played so far this year, this could very well be a West Final preview and could go a long way toward deciding who will host that game.
Calgary opened a lot of eyes with their performance against Winnipeg two weeks ago. They kept that momentum going against the Saskatchewan Roughriders last week with a 24-10 win to move into first place in the West Division. As I said in the opening, it’s time to start believing what these teams are selling and right now, the Stampeders look like they are selling a Ferrari.
Calgary’s offence has been dynamite this season with Vernon Adams showing his M.O.P. form. With V.A. under centre, the Stampeders have the second-best net offence in the league and Adams is just 32 yards behind former Calgary quarterback Bo Levi Mitchell for most passing yards in the league.
One player who has helped V.A. enjoy early success is Damien Alford, who showed all of Saskatchewan why he was the first overall pick in the 2025 CFL Draft. Alford was very impressive against the Riders, beating them for a big play downfield and winning a few 50/50 balls. Alford’s route tree still might be missing some branches, but he clearly has earned V.A.’s trust and adds an interesting dynamic to an already talented receiving room.
The Stampeders are also getting it done on the ground as Dedrick Mills ranks second in the league in rushing yards. He took advantage of his offensive line dominating the Riders last week and the week before, Mills ran all over the Blue Bombers for 93 yards and a score.
On the Winnipeg side, the team didn’t look great against Calgary going into their bye. Zach Collaros faced pressure for much of that game and Winnipeg couldn’t get Brady Oliveira going. With that said, the defending West Division Champs are a different animal at home.
Since the CFL returned to action following the COVID-19 pandemic, the Blue Bombers are 31-5 at Princess Auto Stadium. I had to triple check that and I still don’t totally believe it. That’s an insane stat that is very difficult to ignore.
Despite the lopsided score in their Week 5 meeting, both of these defences have been very strong this year as they both sit in the top-three in points allowed per game. So, while the rematch finished at 53 points, I believe this game will be on the lower scoring side in what should be a really competitive game.
I am done doubting this Stampeders team. I don’t know if they win this outright, but they have certainly proved they can do enough to keep this game close.
PICK: Calgary +3.5, Under 53
Photo: Aru Das/3DownNation. All rights reserved.
Hamilton Tiger-Cats at Ottawa Redblacks (+1.5) — Sunday, July 20 at 7:00 p.m. EDT
This is a matchup so nice we get it twice as the Redblacks host the Tiger-Cats in a rematch from last week’s game.
It took until the second half for both of these teams to find their groove after a 7-4 score through 30 minutes. Hamilton was able to escape with the win following a 10-point fourth quarter. Now, the scene shifts to Ottawa where the Redblacks have surprisingly struggled. The team is 0-2 at home this year after going 7-1-1 at TD Place last year, helping them end a four-season playoff drought.
Injuries have plagued the Redblacks so far this season, but it seems like Dru Brown and Eugene Lewis have established a chemistry. The veteran receiver had 128 yards receiving last week against Hamilton and has over 200 combined receiving yards in the two games since Brown came back. The two are clearly creating that dangerous combination the Redblacks envisioned when they brought the veteran receiver in from Edmonton.
On the Hamilton side, the Tiger-Cats are still the highest-scoring team in the league on a per-game basis, even with a 23-point output last week. Bo Levi Mitchell and the rest of the offence look like they have regrouped from a slow start this year as the veteran QB leads the league in passing yards. Ottawa was able to hold Mitchell to 266 yards last week, but I don’t have confidence they will be able to do that again this week.
The theme of the week is “believe what these teams are telling you,” and while I am sticking to that for the most part, I am closing this week by going against that.
Ottawa’s secondary hasn’t allowed a 300-yard passer since Week 2 against Davis Alexander and the Alouettes. They’re third in the league in passing yards allowed per game and yet I still just don’t believe it’s a top-three passing defence.
I expect Mitchell and the rest of this passing attack to take advantage of them this week, leading Hamilton to a sweep of this all-Ontario series.
PICK: Hamilton -1.5
