The Canadian Football League features only a three-game slate for Week 18 and, though we may have one less game than usual, each matchup has important playoff implications.
With that comes a few places where we can find an edge from a betting perspective, so let’s dive in.
Friday, Oct. 4: Winnipeg Blue Bombers at Hamilton Tiger-Cats — 7:00 p.m. EDT
The CFL’s hottest teams face each other to kick off the week as the Winnipeg Blue Bombers bring their seven-game winning streak to Hamilton to take on the Tiger-Cats, who have won four in a row.
Hamilton’s latest run suddenly has them in a battle for a playoff spot as an overtime win over B.C. last week moved them two points back of the Lions for a crossover spot in the West Division. No team has ever crossed over from the East Division to the West Division but, should Hamilton do so, it would create the possibility of an all-East Division Grey Cup in Vancouver, of all places.
It was another strong night for Bo Levi Mitchell, who threw for 315 yards and a pair of touchdowns. That’s now back-to-back 300-yard performances for Mitchell, who has reached that mark three times during Hamilton’s four-game winning streak (he had 299 yards in the other game). The Ticats also scored 30-plus points in all four games.
They face a Winnipeg defence that has been excellent for most of the season. Winnipeg dominated Edmonton last week for a 55-27 win with Edmonton doing most of their scoring when the game was well out of reach. Even still, it was only the third time Winnipeg has allowed 27 points or more all season.
Winnipeg’s defence is first in the league in opponent net offence and they have allowed the fewest passing yards and points per game this year. Since Week 7, they have only allowed a passer to go over 300 yards once and most of those weeks they didn’t even get to 250. That would include Mitchell, who was held to 220 yards passing when these two teams played in Week 12, in a 26-23 Blue Bombers win.
Hamilton will be without rookie Shemar Bridges after he missed practice all week with a quad injury. Bridges has been automatic on second down this year, putting the Tabbies in the top three league-wide for second down conversion percentage. They will face a Bombers’ defence that is the best in the league at shutting teams down on second down.
On the other side of the ball, Winnipeg’s 55-point outburst was obviously impressive. It also wasn’t even close to what this team is normally about.
It was just the third time all year that Winnipeg had scored more than 30 points — even with a seven-game winning streak, the defending West Division champions are in the bottom third of the league in points per game.
The Ticats allowing a last-minute drive by the Lions put last week’s under in the “bad beats” category and Winnipeg themselves cleared the total last week. So, naturally we are going to go with the under here in a style of game that favours the Bombers.
Pick: Winnipeg -4.5 AND Under 50.5
Saturday, Oct. 5: Saskatchewan Roughriders vs. Edmonton Elks — 7:00 p.m. EDT
The Saskatchewan Roughriders look to take one step closer to their first playoff appearance since 2021 as they take on the Edmonton Elks on Saturday night in the Alberta capital.
The Riders’ roller coaster is now on the upswing again with the team having won back-to-back games to return to second in the West Division. It took the club until the fourth quarter to realize they were allowed into the end zone against Ottawa last week, though they still managed to put up 29 points despite just about every offensive weapon they have getting banged up at some point.
Trevor Harris led the charge with 315 yards through the air, the sixth time in nine games he’s had more than 285 yards passing. He has the Riders’ offence averaging exactly 30 points per game in their last four games.
That isn’t exactly the soft landing spot Edmonton would be looking for after giving up 55 points last week. Their pass defence was beat up by Zach Collaros in that matchup in what has been a recurring problem for Edmonton this year. They are the only team in the CFL that’s allowing over 300 yards passing per game as opposing QBs have thrown for over 280 yards against the Elks seven times in the last nine games.
One of the matchups that went under that total was two weeks ago when Zach Collaros only had 191 yards, but Brady Oliveira ripped them up for over 127 yards on the ground. The other was against Jake Dolegala, so that barely counts.
One area in which Saskatchewan will be able to attack Edmonton’s defence is with the deep ball. The Elks were torched by Winnipeg in this area last week when they ran the always clever, “Hey, he’s just running right past us” route tree. Winnipeg had four players get receptions of 30 yards or longer.
This hasn’t been a major weapon in Harris’ arsenal, but the Green and White have used it enough to make me think they’ll be able to get a couple of big plays in this contest.
On defence, Saskatchewan was back to their usual ways last week with three interceptions, boosting their turnover ratio to plus-18. With Lanier back in the line-up and Cox and Reavis back at practice Wednesday, this Riders’ defence could be an issue for Edmonton this week.
The Elks’ turnaround has been a good story in the middle part of the season, but now it feels like it’s Saskatchewan’s turn to go on a run.
Pick: Saskatchewan -2.5
Peter Klein is a Saskatchewan-born, Calgary-based CFL analyst. He is a lifelong fan who has been covering the league across multiple platforms for the last 17 years.
