B.C. Lions
CFL Week 15 predictions: best bets for Argos at Lions, Redblacks at Ticats, Alouettes at Stamps
It is Week 15 in the Canadian Football League and as we head into the fall, there still isn’t much separating many of the teams in the league.
We only have three games to choose from this week, but all three present intriguing options. I went 3-0 last week, let’s keep that roll going.
Friday, September 13: Toronto Argonauts at B.C. Lions — 10:00 p.m. EDT
Two of the CFL’s biggest names face off on Friday night to kick off Week 15, as Chad Kelly and the Toronto Argonauts face Nathan Rourke and the B.C. Lions.
Kelly’s return from suspension hasn’t provided the boost the Argos were hoping it would. The Double Blue are just 1-2 since he checked back into the line-up. While Kelly himself is putting up strong numbers — he has just 291 fewer passing yards than Cameron Dukes despite playing in 5 fewer games — losses to Hamilton and Ottawa have the Argos five points out of second place in the East Division.
They don’t exactly get a soft landing spot this week. After going through a similar dry spell when Rourke returned, the Lions are playing like the team we saw at the beginning of the year. B.C. has won their last two games by a combined score of 75-35 with Rourke passing for over 300 yards in both of those contests.
Now they return home where they have a 4-1 record (3-1 in Vancouver, 1-0 in Victoria), with the one loss coming in Rourke’s season debut when he looked shaky against the Winnipeg Blue Bombers. The Lion’s defence has stepped up when they are back on the West Coast. B.C. hasn’t allowed a 300-yard passing game at home since their home opener back in June against Calgary.
On the other hand, the Argos have just one road win all season long. That came back in Week 6 when they beat Montreal 37-18 in a game that Cody Fajardo had to exit in the first half. Since then Toronto has lost four straight on the road with three of those coming against the two last-place teams in the league, Hamilton and Calgary. Their most recent road loss was last week when they fell behind Ottawa 31-3 by halftime.
The Argos could eventually have a turnaround similar to the Lions, I just don’t think it will happen this week.
Pick: Lions -4.5
Photo courtesy: Scott Grant/CFLPhotoArchive.com
Saturday, September 14: Ottawa Redblacks at Hamilton Tiger-Cats — 3:00 p.m. EDT
Two teams coming off of wins over the Argos meet on Saturday afternoon with the Tiger-Cats, fresh off a bye, hosting the Ottawa Redblacks.
Hamilton’s home victory over the Argos on Labour Day snapped a four-game losing streak and was their first win at Tim Horton’s Field in over a month. In fact, both Ticats home wins this year have come against the Argos who, as mentioned above, haven’t been great on the road this season.
If Hamilton is going to have success in this game, it is probably going to have to look very similar to the 31-28 win they had over the Boatmen. Hamilton ranks last in points allowed per game and is in the bottom third of the league in net offence allowed per game. They have allowed 30 points in six of their twelve games this season.
They face Ottawa, who dominated the Argos early en route to a 41-27 win. They have now won three of their last four and have scored more than 30 points in all three of those wins.
Dru Brown picked up right where he left off in his return from injury three games ago. Since coming back, the team is 2-1 and he has thrown for over 340 in two of the three games, with the lone outlier coming against B.C. in Victoria.
Homefield has been a big advantage for teams this season, but I don’t think that is going to be enough for the Ticats to get past Ottawa this week.
Pick: Ottawa -3.5
Photo: Montreal Alouettes
Saturday, September 14: Montreal Alouettes at Calgary Stampeders — 7:00 p.m. EDT
The last-place team in the West plays host to the top team in the East as Calgary and Montreal wrap up the weekend at McMahon.
The wheels have fallen off for the Stampeders who have lost four in a row and are just 2-7 since leaving for their annual Stampede trip. And now they aren’t even safe at McMahon Stadium, which was a sanctuary for this team regardless of their early season struggles.
The Stamps have lost back-to-back home games after starting the year 4-0 in Calgary. But, let’s take a closer look at those home wins:
- In Week 1, they beat Hamilton who is 1-5 on the road this season
- In Week 4, they beat Winnipeg 22-19 in overtime. Zach Collaros left that game due to injury
- In Week 7, they beat B.C. 25-24. This is their best home win as it snapped the Lions’ five-game winning streak. Objectively the Lions played a pretty brutal game but still a good win for the Stamps
- In Week 9, they beat Toronto 27-23. Cameron Dukes was still starting for the Double Blue and Calgary needed a 21-point comeback in the fourth quarter to win.
You don’t apologize for wins and you can only play the team that is in front of you. But, looking back at it now, it is safe to say the Stamps’ 4-0 mark at home wasn’t as dominant as it may have appeared at the time.
So, where have things gone wrong? The short answer is: everywhere. But, if there is one thing you should have picked up on by now, it’s that I’m not going to give you the short answer.
On offence, they turn over the ball WAY too much. Calgary has 31 turnovers this season — the most in the league. They also have the worst turnover differential in the league at -15. For reference, Hamilton is second worst at -9.
The Stamps have turned it over 21 times in their last six games with the most egregious performance coming last week in Edmonton where they gave it up seven times. Calgary has at least one turnover in 11 of the 12 games they have played this season and at least two turnovers in nine of them. The average CFL game in 2024 has 3.8 turnovers. The Stamps themselves have more than three in five games, including three of their last four.
When they do hold onto the ball, they don’t do anything with it. Only Winnipeg has scored fewer points per game this season. Calgary is tied for the third-fewest average yards gained on first down at 6.2 and is last in the league for second-down conversions at 42.4 percent.
The defensive side hasn’t been much better. Calgary has allowed the second most points per game in the CFL this season at 30.2, while also allowing the second most opponent net offence per game. That is a far cry from what we expected of this unit this season.
They have allowed the most average yards gained on first down at 7.5. That is a tough way to live your life. This has led to Calgary having the second-highest opponent second down conversion rate in the league at 51.2 percent. The two Alberta teams are the only ones in the CFL who have allowed opponents to convert more than half the time on second down.
They have also had trouble stopping the run. Calgary has given up 116.9 yards per game on the ground — the most in the CFL. During this four-game losing streak, the Stamps have allowed the opposing team’s leading rusher to get over 85 yards in three of them. The only game they didn’t was on Labour Day, when they were too busy giving up 485 yards through the air to McLeod Bethel-Thompson.
I could go on but you get the picture. They now play a very good Montreal team who are upset after getting beat up by B.C. last week. That is a bad matchup for Calgary.
The Alouettes have the third-best turnover differential in the league at +9. They have the second most points per game in the CFL this season, while they have allowed the second-fewest. Oh, and Montreal is tied for the fewest average yards allowed on first down.
I keep expecting the Stampeders’ defence to turn things around. But they are running out of time and a matchup against a presumably re-focused Montreal team doesn’t seem like the optimal occasion for that to happen.