Labour Day weekend is now behind us and the Canadian Football League prepares for Week 14. That means the push to the postseason is on — which also means we’ll get a lot of references to “hard nose, smash mouth, playoff-style” football over the next several weeks.
Fittingly, our focus this week will be on the running backs in a clash of the Titans and a musically-themed rematch on the prairies.
Friday, September 6: B.C. Lions at Montreal Alouettes — 7:30 p.m. EDT
The CFL week starts with a potential Grey Cup preview as the East-leading Alouettes face the Lions. B.C. enters this game tied for first with Winnipeg after snapping their five-game losing streak in Victoria.
The headline stealer from that game was hometown boy Nathan Rourke finding his groove with 325 yards through the air and four touchdowns — three passing, one rushing — but he isn’t the only player getting it going at the biggest time of year.
William Stanback was almost unstoppable against Ottawa to kick off Labour Day weekend, getting 93 yards on 20 carries while finding his way into the endzone. It is the fourth straight very good game for the sixth-year back out of Virginia Union. Stanback is averaging almost 95 yards on the ground in his last four. The last two of those games have been against Ottawa, who have allowed the third-fewest rush yards per game this season — even after back-to-back 90+ yard games from Stanback.
This week he faces a Montreal defence that has been very good in almost every area except for one: run defence. The Alouettes are in the bottom third of the league in rushing yards allowed per game and yards per carry this season.
In the Alouettes’ most recent outing, they gave up 105 yards on just 16 carries to Edmonton Elks’ running back Kevin Brown. That is 6.6 yards per carry, which is right around the six-yard mark that Stanback is averaging in his last four games. He should be motivated to exceed that when returning to face the franchise that cast him aside in the offseason.
With Montreal being the one truly dominant team in the league this year, it is tempting to take them at -3.5 against the Lions. But if Nathan Rourke is truly “back,” I want no part in betting against him. We’ll just stick with the RB bet and enjoy what should be a fantastic game on Friday night at Percival Molson Stadium.
Pick: William Stanback over 83.5 rush yards
Photo courtesy: Saskatchewan Roughriders/Electric Umbrella/Liam Richards
Saturday, September 7: Saskatchewan Roughriders at Winnipeg Blue Bombers — 3:00 p.m. EDT
The Banjo Bowl gets more of a spotlight this weekend with the Riders and Bombers serving as the maiden voyage for a new era of the CFL on CTV.
Last week’s game was predictably unpredictable. It almost hit the over by halftime in what was supposed to be a matchup of two high-level defences. Oddsmakers remain unmoved, however, as the total is right back at 47.5 for this matchup this week.
While it is tempting to bet on these two offences putting on an encore performance in Winnipeg, we’ll stick with what we could predict in last week’s matchup.
We took Oliveira under 70.5 rushing yards in their Labour Day Classic and the Riders held him to 42 yards on 12 carries. That is tied for Oliveira’s second-lowest yards-per-carry total of the year.
It continues the trend for Saskatchewan, who lead the league in rushing yards allowed per game this year. They join Toronto as the only teams who have yet to allow 1,000 yards total on the ground this year, and they have played one more game than the Boatmen. They have still only allowed one 50+ yard game from a running back this season with Oliveira now holding two of the three 40+ yard games the Green and White have allowed this year.
Oddsmakers have given us a little less wiggle room in this game with his total now at 65.5. With the Riders’ strength in this area, I still feel really good about this play, even if we have to sweat it out a bit.
As for the game itself, there is a lot of desperation in Riderville after another loss for Saskatchewan. A loss in this game would mean the Riders going at least a month between victories after their great start to the year.
Home-field advantage has been a real thing in the CFL this year, with the home team going 33-18-1 and eight of those home losses being provided by Edmonton and Hamilton.
Winnipeg is 4-2 at home this season and their play as of late has strengthened that record. The Bombers’ two home losses this year were Week 1 against Montreal and Week 3 in a two-point loss to B.C. Both of those games were in the “still figuring it out” portion of the season.
On the flip side, Saskatchewan’s .417 winning percentage on the road is the third-best mark in the league behind Montreal and Edmonton. However, the only two wins they have on the road came in the first two weeks of the season against Edmonton and Hamilton — the two undisputed worst teams in the league at the time.
Saskatchewan did make things very close last week but they were down 29-14 at the half and only came back once Zach Collaros was knocked out of the game. Assuming he is healthy after a full day of practice to start the week, it is going to be tough for the Riders on the road.
I don’t think the Riders are as bad as their recent record suggests, but I also don’t think they are at a level where I feel confident that they can steal the Banjo Bowl.
Pick: Brady Oliveira under 65.5 AND Winnipeg -2.5
