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3DownNation CFL picks: can Chad Kelly stay afloat in return to Argos?

It’s another week so that means it’s time for another round of picks from our contributors for the Week 12 slate.

This week features the return of Chad Kelly against the Saskatchewan Roughriders, the league’s best team going up against one of the CFL’s hottest, a skidding Lions team travelling to the nation’s capital, and the Tiger-Cats will try to claw their way to their first win in nearly a month against the hot Bombers.

Santino Filoso sits atop our standings straight-up at 29-14-1, extending his lead to two games. Filoso also sits atop our standings against the spread at 27-17 but he’s tied with Ben Grant, both of whom are three games up on anyone else.

Here are our picks for Week 12 in the CFL.

Thursday, Aug. 22: Saskatchewan Roughriders at Toronto Argonauts — 7:30 p.m. EDT

On a four-game winless streak, the Riders haven’t won a game in over a month and will be the first team to try and defend 2023 Most Outstanding Player Chad Kelly this season. The 30-year-old was reinstated by the CFL after serving a nine-game suspension and will start for the first time in 2024 at BMO Field. The Argos will have a chance to sweep all five west teams at home, something they haven’t done since 2004.

ABBOTT: Kelly won’t struggle as much as Rourke thanks to consistency of system, but Mace knows him too well for this to be a win.

Straight-up: Saskatchewan. Against the spread: Saskatchewan.

BALLANTINE: Kelly’s first game back with limited practice reps costs the Argos against a savage Saskatchewan defence. 

Straight-up: Saskatchewan.  Against the spread: Saskatchewan.

DURRELL: We saw what Nathan Rourke looked like in minimal practice time. I expect Kelly to be rusty. 

Straight-up: Saskatchewan. Against the spread: Saskatchewan.

FILOSO: As much as I want to pick against them, the Argos aren’t 4-1 at home by accident.

Straight-up: Toronto. Against the spread: Toronto.

GASSON: It’s been steady improvement for the Riders since they got stomped by Edmonton. It pays off this week. 

Straight-up: Saskatchewan. Against the spread: Saskatchewan. 

GRANT: The Riders can play with anyone but with Kelly’s return, this is a tough game for them to prep for. Plus, Toronto is so good at home.

Straight-up: Toronto. Against the spread: Toronto.

HERRERA-VERGARA: The Riders have what they need to beat the Argos. We shouldn’t see the best version of Kelly.

Straight-up: Saskatchewan. Against the spread: Saskatchewan.

HODGE: Toronto’s a deceptively hard place to play but the Riders should have won by double digits last week.

Straight-up: Saskatchewan. Against the spread: Saskatchewan.

HOSKINS: On principle alone, I pick the Riders. Good thing they should be the pick anyway. 

Straight-up: Saskatchewan. Against the spread: Saskatchewan.

KLEIN: The Argos have been winning games with sub-par QB play all year. Even if Kelly pulls a Rourke, they can still win.

Straight-up: Toronto. Against the spread: Toronto.

TOTALS STRAIGHT-UP: Saskatchewan 7, Toronto 3

TOTALS AGAINST THE SPREAD: Saskatchewan 7, Toronto 3

Photo courtesy: Winnipeg Blue Bombers

Friday, Aug. 23: Hamilton Tiger-Cats at Winnipeg Blue Bombers — 8:30 p.m. EDT

The 2-8 Tiger-Cats’ season doesn’t get any easier as they’ll travel to Winnipeg to take on the Blue Bombers. Winnipeg is 4-2 in their last six games and that’s mostly thanks to some stellar defensive play. The Bombers lead the league in points allowed per game (19.7), offensive yards allowed per game (319) and are near the top in most other categories. Bo Levi Mitchell will be back in the starting lineup following Taylor Powell’s concussion, and he’ll have his plate full against one of the hotter teams in the CFL.

ABBOTT: Have we ever seen two teams trending more aggressively in opposite directions?

Straight-up: Winnipeg. Against the spread: Winnipeg.

BALLANTINE: Winnipeg is getting better and better but 9.5 is crazy against the guy leading the league in passing yards and touchdowns.

Straight-up: Winnipeg. Against the spread: Hamilton.

DURRELL: This one might get ugly. 

Straight-up: Winnipeg. Against the spread: Winnipeg.

FILOSO: Don’t look now but the Bombers are suddenly one of the most dangerous teams in the league. Hamilton is decidedly not.

Straight-up: Winnipeg. Against the spread: Winnipeg.

GASSON: Two teams going in opposite directions. Hamilton is one of two teams you can count on this season. 

Straight-up: Winnipeg. Against the spread: Winnipeg.

GRANT: I like Winnipeg a lot here, but I refuse to eat this many points on principle. 

Straight-up: Winnipeg. Against the spread: Hamilton.

HERRERA-VERGARA: Winnipeg should win this one, but the spread seems a little bit too big.

Straight-up: Winnipeg. Against the spread: Hamilton.

HODGE: Hamilton stinks right now and the Blue Bombers are due to start finishing some drives.

Straight-up: Winnipeg. Against the spread: Winnipeg.

HOSKINS: Winnipeg continues to get back to their former selves. They win in a walk.

Straight-up: Winnipeg. Against the spread: Winnipeg.

KLEIN: Bombers are just simply better in every area.

Straight-up: Winnipeg. Against the spread: Winnipeg.

TOTALS STRAIGHT-UP: Winnipeg 10, Hamilton 0

TOTALS AGAINST THE SPREAD: Winnipeg 7, Hamilton 3

Photo courtesy: Scott Grant/CFLPhotoArchive.com

Saturday, Aug. 24: B.C. Lions at Ottawa Redblacks — 7:00 p.m. EDT

The Lions have been the streakiest team in the CFL this season. They started on a five-game win streak and jumped out to a 5-1 start, before dropping the last four games and are now back at .500. Nathan Rourke disappointed in his return to the CFL last week and will now be taking on the hottest team in the three-down league. The Redblacks are 4-0-1 in their last five games with their last defeat coming all the way back on July 5 to the Bombers. They may also get a boost with Dru Brown potentially back in the lineup.

ABBOTT: Rourke won’t be perfect, but better will be enough to stop the skid.

Straight-up: B.C. Against the spread: B.C.

BALLANTINE: Ottawa gets Dru Brown back, not that they missed him. Something is wrong in Lotusland.

Straight-up: Ottawa. Against the spread: Ottawa. 

DURRELL: Nathan Rourke will look better this week but the Redblacks are hot and the Lions are not. 

Straight-up: Ottawa. Against the spread: Ottawa.

FILOSO: It gets worse before it gets better for Nathan Rourke and company

Straight-up: Ottawa. Against the spread: Ottawa.

GASSON: Something seems off in BC and Ottawa is great at home. 

Straight-up: Ottawa. Against the spread: Ottawa.

GRANT: Welcome to my weekly column where the Redblacks make me look stupid. I think B.C. takes this by double digits.

Straight-up: B.C. Against the spread: B.C.

HERRERA-VERGARA: Nathan Rourke had a tough first time, but it shouldn’t happen two weeks in a row.

Straight-up: B.C. Against the spread: B.C.

HODGE: Nathan Rourke bounces back in a big way.

Straight-up: B.C. Against the spread: B.C.

HOSKINS: Ottawa has been great at home. Rourke needs some time to reacclimatize still. 

Straight-up: Ottawa. Against the spread: Ottawa.

KLEIN: I’m going to keep riding with Rourke and eventually I’ll be right. 

Straight-up: B.C. Against the spread: B.C.

TOTALS STRAIGHT-UP: B.C. 5, Ottawa 5

TOTALS AGAINST THE SPREAD: B.C. 5, Ottawa 5

Photo: Montreal Alouettes

Sunday, Aug. 25: Edmonton Elks at Montreal Alouettes — 7:00 p.m. EDT

The Montreal Alouettes (9-1) will play host to the Edmonton Elks (3-7) with 2023 Grey Cup MVP Cody Fajardo back in the starting lineup. The 32-year-old suffered a hamstring injury in the Alouettes Week 6 loss to the Toronto Argonauts and hasn’t seen game action since. The Elks will try to come into Percival Molson Stadium and cause an upset with their strong offence. Performances over the last couple of weeks have shot Edmonton’s unit to the top in the CFL in points per game (29.6), first downs (219), and touchdowns (32). They’ll be taking on a Montreal defence that has only allowed more than 23 points three times since Week 14 of 2023.

ABBOTT: Tre Ford’s game-breaking ability is the only thing that could upset the Alouettes. Unfortunately, Edmonton won’t have it.

Straight-up: Montreal. Against the spread: Edmonton.

BALLANTINE: Edmonton comes crashing back to earth facing the best team in the league. 

Straight-up: Montreal. Against the spread: Montreal. 

DURRELL: Edmonton is starting to turn a corner but Montreal is head and shoulders above everyone else right now and will be getting Cody Fajardo back too.

Straight-up: Montreal. Against the spread: Edmonton.

FILOSO: I like the Alouettes to win but the Elks will keep things interesting

Straight-up: Montreal. Against the spread: Edmonton.

GASSON: Cody Fajardo is back and the Als keep on rolling. 

Straight-up: Montreal. Against the spread: Montreal.

GRANT: Edmonton matches up very well against Montreal. I’m not sure they have the horses to win, but they’ll keep it close.

Straight-up: Montreal. Against the spread: Edmonton.

HERRERA-VERGARA: The Als are rolling right now, I don’t see how the Elks can stop them.

Straight-up: Montreal. Against the spread: Montreal.

HODGE: The Alouettes are gonna go ham and look good doing it.

Straight-up: Montreal. Against the spread: Montreal.

HOSKINS: I hope for the four-game win streak but Montreal is on fire. Edmonton keeps it close like the first time they met.

Straight-up: Montreal. Against the spread: Edmonton.

KLEIN: The Elks offence has been on fire but they haven’t faced a defence like the Als.

Straight-up: Montreal. Against the spread: Montreal.

TOTALS STRAIGHT-UP: Montreal 10, Edmonton 0

TOTALS AGAINST THE SPREAD: Montreal 5, Edmonton 5

Records to date (straight-up)

FILOSO — 29-14-1
ABBOTT — 27-16-1
GRANT — 27-16-1
HERRERA-VERGARA — 27-16-1
GASSON — 26-17-1
DURRELL — 24-19-1
KLEIN — 24-19-1
HOSKINS — 24-19-1
HODGE — 22-21-1
BALLANTINE — 22-21-1

Records to date (against the spread)

FILOSO — 27-17
GRANT — 27-17
DURRELL — 24-20
GASSON — 23-21
HERRERA-VERGARA — 23-21
HODGE — 22-22
HOSKINS — 20-24
KLEIN — 19-25
BALLANTINE — 18-26
ABBOTT — 16-28

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