It’s Week 5 and the injury bug is starting to bite a few teams across the Canadian Football League with two starting quarterbacks currently on the mend. The league waits for no one, however, so here are my picks for a couple of big games this week.
After going .500 last week, I currently sit at 8-4 for the season so far. Here’s hoping we can continue a strong start in Week 5.
[metabet_core_odds_board site_id=”3downnation” league=”cfl” market=”spread” hide_consensus=”yes”]
Thursday, July 4: Toronto Argonauts vs. Saskatchewan Roughriders – 7 p.m. EDT
The Saskatchewan Roughriders start life without Trevor Harris this week with a home date against the Toronto Argonauts. Shea Patterson is greeted by a Toronto defence that is looking to regroup after having 30 hung on them by the Alouettes last week.
Everything with the Roughriders is magnified and that was no different this year with all eyes on the backup situation behind Harris during training camp. Now that battle’s importance has shone through as Patterson, who beat out three-year veteran Mason Fine, will be forced into action with Harris heading to the six-game injured list.
Patterson did not look comfortable in his relief appearance against the Hamilton Tiger-Cats in Week 3. He finished four-for-ten for 41 yards but never looked like the QB who won the job out of training camp. With a couple of weeks to prepare, Saskatchewan fans are hoping he’ll have things figured out.
The 27-year-old is facing an Argos front that has given QBs all sorts of problems. Toronto is tied for second in sacks and third in tackles for loss. The issue for Toronto has been the big play, having given up six in the first three games of the season, which ranks fourth most in the league.
We’ll see if Patterson can take advantage of that with Shawn Bane Jr. out this week.
On the offensive side of things for Toronto, Cameron Dukes has had an efficient start this year. He leads the league in passer efficiency, just edging out Cody Fajardo and Vernon Adams Jr., and has accrued those numbers with a very conservative approach this year, sitting lowest among starters in average depth of target at 6.8 yards per attempt. For reference, that’s almost a full yard lower than Chris Streveler, who isn’t exactly known for his deep ball.
That conservative approach may actually help against a Green and White defence that’s tied for first in the league with five interceptions.
Injuries may have robbed us of an excellent game, but this should still be a fun matchup. In the end, I think Toronto’s pass rush will be too much for the young Riders’ QB to overcome.
The picks: Toronto -3 AND Under 48.5
[metabet_core_odds_board query=”557056″ site_id=”3downnation”]
Photo courtesy: Gary Lavoie/Montreal Alouettesball
Saturday, July 6: Calgary Stampeders vs. Montreal Alouettes – 5 p.m. EDT
The Calgary Stampeders survived overtime with the Winnipeg Blue Bombers last week. It doesn’t get any easier as they take on the clear No. 1 team in the league right now, the Montreal Alouettes.
Every aspect of the Als game is clicking right now. Their offence has committed the fewest turnovers in the league, while their defence has forced the most.
Last week, Toronto’s defence focused on taking away Tyson Philpot and Kaion Julien-Grant, so Fajardo (and backup Caleb Evans) turned to Cole Spieker eight times for 113 yards and a touchdown.
They face a Calgary defence that faced an interesting test last week with the Winnipeg Blue Bombers turning to Chris Streveler following an injury to Zach Collaros.
Calgary’s defence has given up the fewest big plays in the league this season. If they want to keep that title, they will have to do it against the team that has struck for the most big plays in the league this year.
Offensively, the Calgary Stampeders needed overtime last week to reach 20 points for the second time this year. They’ve only scored double digits in two of the 12 quarters they’ve played all season and haven’t done it at all since Week 1.
Jake Maier has been looking to push the ball downfield more often this year, but the Stamps still only have three big plays all season, which is tied for the fewest in the league.
I do think this is a team that can make a bit of noise in the west, but I don’t think Calgary has the firepower to keep up with Montreal right now.
The picks: Alouettes -9 AND Calgary team total Under 20.5
[metabet_core_odds_board query=”557058″ site_id=”3downnation”]
