3DownNation CFL picks: will favourites fall flat in Division Finals?

The CFL Division Finals are finally here and familiar foes are facing off to book their ticket to the Grey Cup.

All four teams from last year are back for more in primetime and the favourites are the same, with the Toronto Argonauts and Winnipeg Blue Bombers feeling destined for a championship rematch. It is up to the B.C. Lions and Montreal Alouettes to change all that and add some variety to the CFL’s life for once.

In the race for the 3Down picks crown, Santino Filoso and John Hodge have seized control of the straight-up leaderboard, with J.C. Abbott, Joel Gasson, and Josh Smith remaining mathematically in contention. Against the spread, Filoso is alone at the top, with just Joel Gasson having a chance to catch him.

If you think you have the chops to match our experts, try 3DownNation’s new Pick’em game. It’s free to play with a $50 Amazon gift card up for grabs each game. All residents of Canada and the U.S. are eligible to participate, excluding Quebec.

Photo courtesy: Montreal Alouettes

Saturday, November 11: Montreal Alouettes at Toronto Argonauts — 3:00 p.m. EST

There could be as many as 25,000 fans on hand at BMO Field to witness the Eastern Final, as the star-studded Argos’ complete dominance over the league this season has finally generated serious interest in The Six. Chad Kelly’s crew have not been resting on their laurels since clinching first place two months ago and have entered rarified air by tying the best regular-season record in CFL history.

None of that matters if they don’t deliver in the playoffs, however, and they’ll look to avoid the fate of the legendary 16-2 Edmonton team of 1989, which fell to a far weaker opponent than these Alouettes to end their historic run. For their part, Montreal has embraced the underdog role and delivered a decisive victory over Hamilton last week. An aggressive defence has pushed them to their best record since the retirement of Anthony Calvillo, but couldn’t figure out the Argos in three losses this year.

Both sides are relatively healthy entering this matchup, with Toronto hoping the return of future Hall of Fame running back Andrew Harris can be the good luck charm it was last year.

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DUNK: Toronto is the deepest team in the CFL and might actually have a real, tangible home-field advantage at BMO Field.

Straight-up: ARGOS. Against the spread: ARGOS.

HODGE: Montreal will need close to a perfect performance to get the upset here. Toronto has been champing at the bit for almost two months and is simply the better-coached and more talented team. If the Alouettes cover this spread, it’ll likely be thanks to a touchdown in garbage time.

Straight-up: ARGOS. Against the spread: ALS.

ABBOTT: With all due respect to Cody Fajardo, the reason why the Alouettes have been underdogs all season is that they haven’t beaten anybody of substance. The Montreal offence is about as scary as a kitten and their impressive defence is dwarfed in talent by that of their opponent. If the Argos are who they say they are, this will be over by halftime.

Straight-up: ARGOS. Against the spread: ARGOS.

BALLANTINE: There is no reason for me to believe the Argos won’t be able to get to the big game. Montreal hasn’t beaten any of the remaining playoff teams but their elite defense will keep it closer than this spread. 

Straight-up: ARGOS. Against the spread: ALS.

FILOSO: It feels like Toronto has been inevitable this season and I don’t see any reason to believe they’ll falter now. That’s a large spread though.

Straight-up: ARGOS. Against the spread: ALS.

GASSON: I bet against the Als’ year-long trend last week. I kind of want to do it again but this Argos team is just too good. Montreal can keep it close, though. 

Straight-up: ARGOS. Against the spread: ALS.

GRANT: Montreal is capable of winning this game, but EVERYTHING would have to go right. I think it’s going to be tight at times, but ultimately Montreal won’t be able to keep up offensively.

Straight-up: ARGOS. Against the spread: ALS.

HOSKINS: I know it is a massive long shot but something about the way Maas is coaching this crew intrigues me. I’m going against the grain and believing in the 16-2 curse.

Straight-up: ALS. Against the spread: ALS.

KLEIN: The Argos are simply too good. Full credit to the Als for getting here but Toronto is just better.

Straight-up: ARGOS. Against the spread: ARGOS.

MCGUIRE: I still expect the Boatmen to hit an iceberg somewhere along this playoff journey, but I can’t see it happening against the Alouettes.

Straight-up: ARGOS. Against the spread: ALS.

SMITH: The Als beat up on teams that aren’t all that good, as they did last week against Hamilton, and lose to very good teams, like the one they’ll play this weekend in Toronto. That spread is just a touch too high for me, though.

Straight-up: ARGOS. Against the spread: ALS.

TOTALS STRAIGHT-UP: Toronto 10, Montreal 1

TOTALS AGAINST THE SPREAD: Montreal 8, Toronto 3

Photo: Neil Noonan/3DownNation. All rights reserved.

Saturday, November 11: B.C. Lions at Winnipeg Blue Bombers — 6:30 p.m. EST

A year after their heartbreaking exit at the hands of these same Bombers, the Lions head back to IG Field with a better understanding of the crowd and the elements for a chance to finally climb the West Division mountaintop.

This rivalry wasn’t nearly as lopsided as it was a season ago either, as each side logged one blowout win over the other before the Bombers seized home-field advantage with an overtime victory in Week 18 — a game the Lions would have won if receiver Dominique Rhymes hadn’t run out the clock on the final play of regulation.

While Winnipeg took their well-earned week off, Vernon Adams Jr. had a career-defining outing in the West Semi-Final and will look to keep the hot streak rolling against the quarterback who beat him out for West Division all-star honours, Zach Collaros. He’ll need to start fast too, as the Lions’ defence will be tasked with stopping bulldozing running back Brady Oliveira without the services of middle linebacker Ben Hladik. When the Bombers do take to the skies, it will be without top receiver Dalton Schoen, forcing Collaros to throw to three other pass catchers nursing injuries that could be game-time decisions.

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DUNK: B.C.’s last practice of the week was inside BC Place — out of the elements. That tells me all I need to know.

Straight-up: BOMBERS. Against the spread: BOMBERS.

HODGE: B.C.’s a good team but Winnipeg has every advantage here, outside of the injury to Dalton Schoen. Between the bye week, the weather, and the ear-splitting crowd noise, Winnipeg can afford to make a few mistakes and still win. B.C. can’t.

Straight-up: BOMBERS. Against the spread: BOMBERS.

ABBOTT: The Lions put themselves behind the eight ball when they lost home-field advantage, but the Winnipeg weather forecast doesn’t look to be nasty enough to slow down this passing attack. If Vernon Adams Jr. can sling the rock like last week, B.C. will limit Brady Oliveira’s impact with an early lead. With the injuries in their receiving corps, I don’t trust the Bombers to come from behind.

Straight-up: LIONS. Against the spread: LIONS.

BALLANTINE: The forecast puts this game right around the freezing mark which takes away the potential deep-freeze home-field advantage. The Lions will take the crowd out of it early. 

Straight-up: LIONS. Against the spread: LIONS.

FILOSO: If this game was being played in Vancouver, I’d be taking the Lions. But it’s not, and I don’t see B.C.’s offence — predicated on precise timing — working well in the snow.

Straight-up: BOMBERS. Against the spread: BOMBERS.

GASSON: I think I’ve picked just about every Bombers’ playoff game wrong since 2021. So, I’m just going to go with my heart and take the team I want. Hopefully, a victory means more teams play like the Lions in this copycat league. 

Straight-up: LIONS. Against the spread: LIONS.

GRANT: I don’t think the Lions will look anything like the machine they were last week. You can’t give the Bombers extra time to prepare and expect to win.

Straight-up: BOMBERS. Against the spread: BOMBERS.

HOSKINS: I just want to see B.C.’s offence do more amazing things. It’s a tall ask in the confines of IG Field but it’s the Lions’ turn  

Straight-up: LIONS. Against the spread: LIONS.

KLEIN: Home-field is such an advantage here for Winnipeg. They’ve come up big in so many spots over this run, I expect this to be another in a really fun West Final.

Straight-up: BOMBERS. Against the spread: LIONS.

MCGUIRE: The Leos would need back-to-back good Vernon Adams Jr. performances and catch Winnipeg on an off day to win. That’s just too many ifs.

Straight-up: BOMBERS. Against the spread: BOMBERS.

SMITH: I am not picking against the machine that has seemingly decided 2023 is just going to be 2022 all over again.

Straight-up: BOMBERS. Against the spread: BOMBERS.

TOTALS STRAIGHT-UP: Winnipeg 7, B.C. 4

TOTALS AGAINST THE SPREAD: Winnipeg 6, B.C. 5

Records to date (straight-up)

FILOSO — 57-26
HODGE — 57-26
ABBOTT — 56-27
GASSON — 56-27
SMITH — 54-29
DUNK — 53-30
GRANT — 53-30
KLEIN — 53-30
HOSKINS — 52-31
BALLANTINE — 50-33
MCGUIRE — 48-35

Records to date (against the spread)

FILOSO — 50-31-2
GASSON — 48-33-2
ABBOTT — 46-35-2
KLEIN — 44-37-2
BALLANTINE — 43-38-2
SMITH — 43-38-2
MCGUIRE — 43-38-2
HODGE — 43-38-2
DUNK — 42-39-2
GRANT — 42-39-2
HOSKINS — 40-41-2