The Hamilton Tiger-Cats will host the Montreal Alouettes at Tim Hortons Field on Saturday night. The Als enter the game as [metabet_core_dynamic_odds market=”spread-away” query=”531038″ site_id=”3downnation”] point favourites.
These two teams met back in Week 3 when the Alouettes annihilated the Ticats 38-12 in Hamilton. Alouettes’ quarterback Cody Fajardo continued his dominance over the Tabbies, throwing for 292 yards and two touchdowns on 19-of-25 passing in the win. He also scored on the ground.
In five career starts against the Tiger-Cats, Fajardo has completed 74.3 percent of his passes, averaged nearly 280 yards through the air, and accounted for 10 total touchdowns compared to just two interceptions, all while posting a 4-1 record
The Tabbies moved the ball well last time out, especially through the air. Matthew Shiltz threw a career-high 345 yards while Tim White and Duke Williams each recorded 100-plus receiving yards but the team was unable to find the end zone. Shiltz threw two interceptions, including a pick-six to Wesley Sutton that sealed the Ticats’ fate.
The Tiger-Cats will be without the services of Shiltz and veteran starter Bo Levi Mitchell after the latter was injured on the penultimate play of last week’s victory over the Ottawa Redblacks. Rookie Taylor Powell will make the second start of his young career on Saturday.
In his first start, Powell threw for 283 yards and one interception against a stout Toronto Argonauts defence. He also rushed for 37 yards and the team’s only touchdown in the 31-15 loss to their provincial rivals.
The Alouettes have owned the Tiger-Cats as of late, winning four of the last five dating back to the start of the 2022 season, including last season’s East Semi-Final. Prior to Montreal’s recent success, the Ticats had won nine of the last 13 meetings dating back to the 2016 season.
[metabet_core_odds_board query=”531038″ site_id=”3downnation”]
Both teams come into this game banged up, with the Alouettes being without a number of starters, including Canadian receiver Kaion Julien-Grant, strong-side linebacker Najee Murray, middle linebacker Avery Williams, field halfback Dionte Ruffin and veteran defensive back Ciante Evans, who had an interception the last time these two teams met.
One player the Tiger-Cats will have to focus on stopping is first-year receiver Austin Mack. Mack sits fourth in the league in receiving yards and had a monster game against the Ticats previously, catching five passes for 81 yards and two touchdowns. The former Ohio State Buckeye is also coming off his first sub-70-yard game of the season when he had just 37 against Calgary last Sunday. He has proven to be a reliable target for Fajardo and with Julien-Grant out, expect Mack to see a lot of targets and bounce back from the first poor outing in his CFL career.
Mitchell is the biggest name missing for the Tiger-Cats but they will also be without the services of defensive linemen Dylan Wynn and Ja’Gared Davis, as well as offensive linemen Joel Figueroa and Kyle Saxelid.
Montreal can secure the season series and the all-important tiebreaker with a win over Hamilton while a Ticats’ victory would make their Week 21 matchup in Montreal all the more intriguing with playoff implications likely being on the line.
The Tabbies showed life on the defensive side of the ball against Ottawa, registering six sacks of mobile Redblacks’ quarterback Dustin Crum, with the defensive end tandem of Malik Carney and Tre Crawford each registering two a piece. If the Ticats can get that type of pressure on Fajardo they can come away with the win and move into sole possession of second place in the East Division. These two teams are much closer than the score of the first game would indicate, and given that having an unknown quarterback can sometimes be advantageous, I like the home side to both cover the spread and win outright.
Hamilton’s defence has given up the second-most points this season and with a banged-up defence on the other side, I think this could be a bit of a shootout. The Tiger-Cats are unlikely to be held out of the end zone again and if Taylor Powell is allowed to air it out, I think both teams can score in the mid-to-high 20s. I like the over in this one.
Picks
Spread: Ticats +2.5 (-110)
Moneyline: Ticats (+124)
Total points: Over 45.5
Josh Smith has been writing about the Ticats and the CFL since 2010 and was sporting his beard way before it was cool. Will be long after, too.
