Betting picks for Hamilton Tiger-Cats vs. Ottawa Redblacks

The Hamilton Tiger-Cats head to TD Place on Friday night for a divisional clash with the Ottawa Redblacks. The Redblacks enter the game as [metabet_core_dynamic_odds market=”spread-home” query=”531032″ site_id=”3downnation”] point favourites.

The Ticats will welcome quarterback Bo Levi Mitchell back after the veteran signal-caller suffered an adductor injury in Hamilton’s Week 2 loss to the Toronto Argonauts back in June. In his first two starts with his new team, Mitchell struggled, completing 57.9 percent of his passes for 361 yards, one touchdown and four interceptions. While his return should theoretically provide a boost to the offence, his first two games didn’t inspire much confidence.

The opposite of that has been the man who will line up under centre for Ottawa, rookie Dustin Crum. Since being inserted into the starting lineup, the Kent State product has put the league on notice with his dual-threat abilities, throwing for 667 yards and two touchdowns while also rushing for 235 yards and three touchdowns in his two starts.

Hamilton will be the first team to get a second dose of Crum after he made his debut against the Black and Gold with a relief appearance following an injury to Jeremiah Masoli. In that Week 4 contest, Crum threw for 149 yards and rushed for another 91, and first showcased the skills that have since made him the talk of the CFL.

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The Ticats have owned the Redblacks of late, winning eight in a row in the series and three in a row at TD Place in Ottawa, but Friday’s home side has closed the gap somewhat recently. Hamilton has won those eight games by an average of almost 13 points but the last four featured margins of just two, three, seven and eight points respectively.

With Crum in the lineup, these Redblacks will be different than the team Hamilton has beaten over the past three seasons. Ottawa has averaged 37 points per game the last two weeks, a dangerous proposition for a Hamilton defence that has allowed 30.8 points per game this season.

Where Ottawa has struggled is in defending the pass. They have given up the most passing yards and the most pass plays of 30 yards or more. Whether the Tiger-Cats can exploit that is unclear as they have thrown for the third-fewest yards of any team through seven weeks despite trailing for significant portions in four of their six games.

Ottawa has done a good job of stopping the run, giving up just over 66 yards per game this year. I still do expect the Ticats to give a healthy workload to running back James Butler, who struggled last week in the loss to the Argos but has managed to put up 60 or more yards on the ground in four of six games this season. I think Ottawa’s low rush-yard number is more about teams being able to beat them in the passing game rather than having a stout run defence.

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When this spread opened at 3.5 points, I was all over the Ticats. While Ottawa has won their last two, they have both come in overtime by three and two points, respectively. The Redblacks being anything more than a field-goal favourite felt like a gift but then the line moved back a point and a half. Now, I like the home side to both win outright and cover the small spread.

Points could be at a premium as these teams combined for just 34 total points in their previous meeting three weeks ago. While Ottawa has produced 31 and 43 in their last two games, both of those totals needed overtime to be achieved. I do not expect this game to go to an extra frame and I think the trend of these offences having a hard time finding the end zone, with both scoring just nine offensive majors each so far this year, will continue. Take the under.

Picks
Spread: Ottawa -2 (-105)
Moneyline: Ottawa (-135)
Total points: Under 49