Betting picks for Hamilton Tiger-Cats vs. Toronto Argonauts

The Hamilton Tiger-Cats will host the Toronto Argonauts for the first time this season when the two teams meet on Friday night at Tim Hortons Field. The Argos enter the game as a [metabet_core_dynamic_odds market=”spread-away” query=”531029″ site_id=”3downnation”] point road favourite.

The Double Blue have been outstanding so far in 2023, beginning the season with four consecutive wins for the first time in 40 years thanks to a balanced offensive attack and a tenacious defence.

Toronto currently leads the CFL in points per game, is second in points allowed, has given up the fewest sacks and forced the most turnovers. They also have the league’s second-highest-rated passer in Chad Kelly, the second-leading rusher in terms of yards per game in A.J. Ouellette, and are the only remaining undefeated team in the CFL.

The Ticats, meanwhile, have started to dig themselves out of their early 0-3 hole, winning their last two games to claw back into a three-way tie for second place in the East Division.

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Hamilton will be starting their third different quarterback, as rookie Taylor Powell assumes the starting duties against the Argos following last week’s injury to Matthew Shiltz. Shiltz was already filling in for Bo Levi Mitchell, who was injured in the team’s first meeting with Toronto back in June.

With an inexperienced quarterback, the Tabbies will likely rely on running back James Butler, who had his best game in black and gold a week ago. Butler rushed for 127 yards on 14 carries, caught three passes for 40 yards, and found the end zone for the third time this season last week against Edmonton.

Hamilton’s defence has a tough task against the high-flying Toronto offence. The Tiger-Cats have allowed fewer than 30 points just twice this year and fewer than 20 just once while the Argos have scored at least 32 points in all four games this season.

The Ticats’ offence will also need to find its rhythm if they hope to pull off the upset. The Tabbies scored more than 30 points for the first time last week and will be going up against an Argos’ defence that has allowed more than 30 in a game just once this year.

This has not been a particularly close rivalry over the last year as the Argos have won four of the last five matchups, including a dominating 32-14 victory in Week 2. In that game, Chad Kelly rushed for three touchdowns and second-year receiver Damonte Coxie caught six passes for 131 yards to pace the Boatmen to their first win of the 2023 season.

That game was played at BMO Field in Toronto, where the Argos have won four of the last five against Hamilton. Friday’s game will be in Hamilton, where the Ticats have won 11 of 14 matchups between the two teams since Tim Hortons Field opened in 2014.

The spread has moved nearly three points as the week has gone on, with the Argos opening as a 6.5-point favourite before settling to where it is now. Road favourites have covered six of nine matchups so far this season, with the average margin of victory in those six covers being almost 12 points.

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The Argonauts are hot right now and clearly the front-runner after the first six weeks, but a large road favourite is normally something to avoid. Add in that this is a rivalry game and the final could end up being much closer than the bookmakers think.

If the Tiger-Cats can keep it within two scores going into the fourth quarter, the chance for a backdoor cover is there. The Argos will win this game outright but at the current numbers, I would be inclined to take the points with the Ticats.

Thanks in large part to Toronto scoring nearly 40 points per game, Argos games have averaged nearly 63 points per game so far in 2023. Until we see otherwise, pound the over on total points with the Argos going forward.

Picks

Spread: Hamilton +9.0 (-110)
Moneyline: Toronto (-390)
Total points: Over 49.5 (-110)