The Hamilton Tiger-Cats return from the bye week looking to get their first win of the season when they host the Ottawa Redblacks on Saturday night at Tim Hortons Field. The Ticats enter the games as a [metabet_core_dynamic_odds market=”spread-home” query=”531022″ site_id=”3downnation”] point favourite.
This will be the third time this season that the Ticats are favoured by oddsmakers, despite their 0-3 record and failure to cover the spread in 2023.
The last time the Tabbies were in action they lost 38-12 at home to the Montreal Alouettes. In that game, the Tiger-Cats failed to find the end zone and relied on four Marc Liegghio field goals to provide all of their points. Matthew Shiltz, playing in place of injured starter Bo Levi Mitchell, threw for 345 yards in the loss but also tossed two costly interceptions, one of which was returned for a touchdown.
Hamilton’s dynamic receiver duo of Tim White and Duke Williams both eclipsed the 100-yard mark against Montreal, marking the first time the pair had done that in the same game this season. The two receivers have been the lone bright spots for a moribund Hamilton offence averaging just 19 points and 310 yards per game — bottom third in the league in both categories.
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The Tiger-Cats have also struggled on defence. They are allowing the second-most yards per game and have given up a league-worst 112 points, with all three of their opponents surpassing the 30-point mark.
The good news for the Tabbies is that they will be facing an Ottawa side that has been almost equally as inept.
The Redblacks are one of just two teams averaging fewer points, 17.7, and yards, 286, than the Ticats. Ottawa’s defence has been better, allowing the third-fewest yards and points per game.
Ottawa is getting some reinforcements on offence with the return of quarterback Jeremiah Masoli, but how big of a boost he will provide is yet to be determined. In four appearances with the team before his injury last year, the Masoli-led Redblacks’ offence scored 18.3 points per game and cracked the 20-point mark just once.
There is also a rust factor with Masoli playing for the first time in exactly 365 days, as well as him acclimating himself to a new offence. Ottawa’s production will likely improve with the 2018 East Division Most Outstanding Player back under centre, but to expect it to happen immediately might be asking too much.
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The biggest advantage that Hamilton has over Ottawa is rest. The Tiger-Cats are coming off their bye and teams this season are 4-1 straight up and 3-2 against the spread following their week off, with those four teams winning by an average of 16 points.
While it would be understandable for anyone to be leery of backing the Tiger-Cats, most of this season’s winning indicators skew in Hamilton’s direction. With Ottawa being almost as untrustworthy as Hamilton, I like the home side to get the win and cover the spread.
However, I do not expect a high-scoring affair on Saturday night. Neither of these teams has shown much of anything offensively, with neither of them averaging over 20 points per game. While Hamilton’s defence has been abysmal, Ottawa’s offence does not inspire confidence. Even with the return of Masoli, I don’t see the Redblacks scoring in bunches. I expect this to be a sloppily played affair with points at a premium.
Picks
Against the spread: Ticats -2.5 (-110)
Moneyline: Ticats (-140)
Total points: under 44 (-110)
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