Betting picks for Hamilton Tiger-Cats vs. Montreal Alouettes

After opening the season with two road tilts, the Hamilton Tiger-Cats finally play at the friendly confines of Tim Hortons Field when they host the Montreal Alouettes on Friday. The Ticats enter the game as a 2.5-point favourite.

The Tabbies are dealing with a plethora of injuries, most notably to quarterback Bo Levi Mitchell who will miss Friday’s game with an adductor injury suffered in the fourth quarter of last week’s loss against the Toronto Argonauts.

Taking Mitchell’s place will be Matthew Shiltz, who is in his second year with the team after spending the first four seasons of his career with the Als. He has eight career starts, three of which came last season as he posted a 2-1 record. His best game as a starter came last August when he completed 69.2 percent of his passes for 303 yards and two touchdowns against Montreal in a hard-fought 29-28 loss to his former team. That game remains the only 300-yard passing performance in Shiltz’s professional career.

On the other side, new Alouettes’ starter Cody Fajardo has had his fair share of success against the Ticats. The 2019 West Division Most Outstanding Player is 3-1 in his career as a starter against the Tabbies, averaging over 275 pass yards and amassing eight total touchdowns with just two turnovers in those four stars.

Hamilton’s defence has been atrocious to start the year, giving up a league-worst 74 points over the first two weeks but that might not be an area the Alouettes will be able to exploit. Montreal scored just 19 points in their opening weekend victory against the Redblacks and found the end zone just once in that contest. Ottawa’s defence also harassed Fajardo for most of the night en route to six sacks, so it’s possible an underperforming Hamilton pass rush could find some success against the Als.

These two teams met three times in the regular season a year ago, with the home side emerging victorious in each contest. In the three-game series, the aggregate margin of victory was just one point. The playoffs were a different story, however, as the Alouettes bullied their way to a never-in-doubt 28-17 victory, which they did behind a great defensive effort and a stellar running game.

The history between these teams suggests this won’t be a high-scoring affair on Friday night. In three games last season, the total point average was 45.5 with neither team scoring 30 or more points in any outing.

Rest could be a factor as the Als have not played since June 10, while the Ticats were in action five days ago. With the injury bug ravaging the Tabbies, it would make sense to take the points and ride with the Alouettes but Shiltz played well in relief of Mitchell last week and his experience in the offence could give the Ticats the boost they need to get their first win of the season.

Picks

Against the spread: Ticats -2.5 (-110)
Moneyline: Ticats (-135)
Total points: Under 44 (-110)